The work consists of two parts and is devoted to a comparative analysis of the declared cognitive and actually perceived affective relations to friendship. In the second part, the distribution functions for the entire hierarchical system of factors identified in the first part and reflecting the structure of the cognitive perception of friendship by DSTU students are presented. It was found that the overall cognitive attitude of the group is positive. For two indicators of the second level and the integral factor of all cognitive perception, about 80% of all respondents are characterized by positive values of these indicators. For the third factor of the second level, the subgroup with a positive perception (60%) is also larger than with a negative one (40%), but not so much. The affective component of students ' attitudes towards friendship gives a completely different picture. Here, 57% of respondents are characterized by an almost neutral emotional attitude to it, while only 29% are positive. All this suggests that in the group as a whole, students position a more positive relationship to friendship on a cognitive level than they actually feel emotionally. We associate this with the influence of society (both the immediate environment in direct communication, and through literature, art, mass media, etc.). The paper also analyzes the relationship between cognitive and affective attitudes to friendship at the individual level. In General, there is no such connection for the studied audience, even statistically (the correlation coefficient is only 0.17). But if we divide the entire audience into two subgroups, characterized by both the excess of cognitive perception over affective, and with the opposite ratio, then for them separately there is already a positive statistical relationship.

Keywords: friendship, pilot survey, cognitive component, hierarchical factorization method, distribution functions, affective component, comparative analysis

The work consists of two parts and is devoted to a comparative analysis of the declared cognitive and actually perceived affective relations to friendship. It is based on the results of a pilot survey conducted at DSTU at the end of 2019, in order to comprehensively measure the two components of students ' friendly attitudes. In the first part of the work, the rationale for the need for such complex measurements is given, and the method used to identify the cognitive component that we associate with the declared attitude is briefly shown. The results of the hierarchy of factors that describe various aspects of the structure of the cognitive perception of friendship are presented. It is found that the primary 11 characteristics that were used for the survey in the questionnaire are statistically dependent, and at the next level they are reduced to three indicators: moral relationships in friendship, interpersonal interaction in friendship, and the impact of friendship on life in General. At the higher level, these factors, in turn, are reduced to one integral indicator of the cognitive perception of friendship. The distribution functions by respondents for all these factors are given in the next part of the paper. Where they are used for comparative analysis.

Keywords: friendship, pilot survey, cognitive component, hierarchical factorization method, distribution functions, affective component, comparative analysis

The work is devoted to the development of experimental research technology for the emotional component of students ' attitudes towards friendship. Using a concrete example, it is shown that the previously developed method of measuring the affective component of various social attitudes makes it possible to identify the levels of emotional perception of both real and virtual friendship. It was found that just over half of the studied audience (57-59%) showed an almost neutral emotional attitude to both real and virtual friendships. Only about 29% perceive real friendship positively, and even less – 19% - virtual friendship. On the contrary, virtual friendship is negatively evaluated by 22% , while real friendship is only 14%. Thus, in the group as a whole, the attitude to real friendship is more positive than to virtual one. It is shown that this pattern is observed not only at the group level, but also at the individual level. But in the form of a trend. The results confirm the decrease in the importance of friendship noted in the literature (compared to the last century), and the emerging increase in the role of virtual interpersonal relationships.

Keywords: interpersonal relationships, friendship, virtual friendship, affective component of attitudes, semantic differential technology, nonlinear phenomenological model

The probabilistic model of perception of concrete propaganda information is presented. Previously, such a model was developed by us for subjects with a neutral attitude to propaganda in General. Now it is generalized to the case of arbitrary relation. In the model, the perception of a particular news is stochastic in nature, and in the limit goes to the levels of complete reliability or complete unreliability. At the same time, there is a connection between the level of global perception of propaganda as a whole and the levels of local perceptions averaged over the entire previous ensemble of specific news . On a concrete example it is shown that the offered model allows to restore for any investigated group dynamics of local perception of concrete information on known functions of distribution of global perception. This information is important to identify the features of perception, depending on the external and internal characteristics of the study group. In addition, the model presented in this article is the basic one. One of its purposes is to serve as a basis for further expansion along the way of taking into account the impact of the social environment. That is supposed to hold in the future.

Keywords: propaganda, perception, in General, individual news, modeling, probabilistic-stochastic approach, discrete-event approximation, Bayesian theory, multi-agent analysis

At the end of 2018, a pilot survey of DSTU students was conducted to identify their perception of propaganda in General. In total 169 respondents of 1 - 4 courses, age from 17 to 37 years were interviewed. Of these, 96 people were technical specialties, 73 were humanitarian. The paper presents the results obtained by the cognitive block of the questionnaire. It asked students to describe the fairness of the policy pursued by the state and the credibility of both government and opposition political propaganda in General. At the same time, domestic and foreign policy were considered separately. Diagrams of the distribution of these six values by respondents are given. It is received that in General on the investigated group the assessment of justice of policy of the state can be called rather negative. For domestic policy, 70% of respondents indicated a level of justice below the average, 36% of them consider it completely unfair. For foreign policy, these figures are 10% better. Approximately the same regularities are observed for assessing the reliability of political propaganda, both Pro-government and opposition. At the same time, about 10% consider opposition propaganda to be more reliable.

Keywords: perception, government propaganda , opposition propaganda, questioning, cognitive attitudes, distribution functions, evaluation, credibility of propaganda, justice of foreign and domestic policy

The paper discusses the flow induced by centrifugal forces in helium II on the outside of the rotating cylinder. The analysis was carried out in the framework of Landau's two-fluid theory, in the approximation of a plane incompressible fluid. A two-parameter family of solutions of the equations of motion is revealed, in which the centrifugal forces for the normal component are fully compensated by counter-current (normal and super-fluid components) flows. According to preliminary estimates, the most stable of them is the flow, in which the pressure forces in the superconducting part are also compensated, The results show that in the analysis of helium II rotations it is necessary to take into account countercurrent instabilities.

Keywords: helium II, rotating cylinder, two-fluid theory, counter-current flows, stability, centrifugal forces, pressure compensation

One of the key points of planning individual iterations in IT projects is the forecasting of the so-called focus factor. More specifically, it is the concentration of the workforce and the team's efforts to perform tasks. The purpose of this work was to clarify the previously obtained results on the choice of optimal methods of such prediction. This used another criterion for the quality of the forecast, not a mistake in planning the performance of the iteration, as before, and the inaccuracy of the prediction of the focus factor. The analysis carried out according to the new criterion fully confirms all the results obtained earlier. Among the considered mathematical methods of forecasting for planning in iterations of IT-projects the most suitable is extrapolation by moving average (both arithmetic and geometric) for the previous 1-4 periods. The error of the focus factor forecast for them is about 4.7%. Another aim of this work was the formalization of the intuitive methods of planning undertaken by specific teams of developers of projects. On this basis, within the framework of the theory of fuzzy sets with the use of linguistic variables, a heuristic forecasting model is developed. Numerical experiments on the basis of specific production data have shown for it a higher accuracy of the forecast than for extrapolation. The error was about 3% against 4.7%. The paper also presents a combined model using elements of both the heuristic approach and the above-mentioned extrapolation. It showed even higher accuracy of the forecast, with a mean square error of about 1.5%. The results obtained in this work, in our opinion, completely solve the problem of the optimal method of planning individual iterations in the implementation of IT projects.

Keywords: management, IT-project, iterative nature, iteration planning, forecast, focus factor, moving average, standard error, linguistic variables, fuzzy analysis, heuristic model

The models of resolution of the main types of intrapersonal conflict are given. They are all connected with the choice of the object or action (equal or different valence) of two equiprobable (still attractive). The models were built in the discrete event approximation. It is based on the assumption that the opinion of the subjects about the usefulness of the objects undergoing random fluctuations at each step. Their attraction is the same only average. The second basic hypothesis is that the subject intuitively changes its assessment of the probability of selection after the change of the attractiveness. The transformation probability is modeled using Bayesian theory of decision-making. Numerical experiments showed the viability of such model. It is obtained that in the end, the situation with the choice of is permitted in one direction or another (equiprobable at the level of the final decision). The time resolution is inversely proportional to the width of the fluctuation of attraction. In the work it is also investigated the influence of evaluation by the subject of the significance of the objects. Obtained as a very low evaluation, and Vice versa, too high, hinder the resolution of conflict. The minimum completion time is achieved a little distant relation of the subject to the object (process) conflict. The results are as purely situational, specific significance, and the overall methodological. The presented models allow for an easy generalization to more complex cases involving a variety of factors influence and can serve as a basis for such studies.

Keywords: conflict, intrapersonal, simulation, discrete-event approximation, the fluctuations of attraction, the choice situation, probability assessment, Bayesian theory, decision-making, perception of the significance of the objects of the conflict

The paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of estimates of the levels of emotional perception, is satisfied in full and shortened semantic scales. The studies were performed on specific experimental data obtained in the measurement of deprivation attitudes of students Academy of architecture and construction DSTU at the end of 2016. It is found that the decrease in the number of signs in the semantic scale to the optimum leads to small changes in the assessments of emotional perception. At the individual level the changes are mostly (70%) not more than 10%,and in the whole group even less.

Keywords: relative deprivation, semantic space, factor analysis, rating scale, experimental regularity, factorization of scales, psychophysiological nature of the law of factorization, the optimal set

The results of the pilot survey conducted in late 2016 are presented. The purpose of the measurement was identifying deprivation of students as a characteristic indicator of political tension among the youth. The cognitive component of the perception of their relative deprivation was determined by direct survey. Using the obtained results the distribution function of these parameters according respondents was constructed. In the whole group it was received a fairly low declared level of deprivation. The sub-group with low and average level is 92% and only 8% of respondents noted the high level of this indicator. Interpretation of survey data was conducted using the early developed psychosemantic phenomenological stochastic model. In the model the relationship of level of emotional perception with the received data was determined stochastic integral-differential equation. It had a Monte Carlo in the multi-agent simulation package AnyLogic. In the end, the statistical characteristics such as the distribution function for affective perception of the relative deprivation according respondents were determined. In the whole group affective component is higher than the declared cognitive one. It is suggesting the need for assessments of deprivation using not only the cognitive measure, but also affective measure. In particular, the proportion of respondents with high deprivation according to this estimation higher than that obtained by direct survey and is 12%. This part of respondents is a subgroup of the risk opportunities for the development of the protest.

Keywords: political tensions, relative deprivation, cognitive component, a direct survey , the affective component, semantic differential, stochastic model, a typical potential, Monte-Carlo distribution function, group risk

The paper discusses methods of measuring General emotional state of respondents as an indicator of social health of the study group, particularly in relation to the political field. It is based on a survey among students of the Rostov State University of Civil Building conducted at the end of 2015. The research was pilot in nature, all were interviewed 57 people of younger courses. Of these, 84% men, 16% women. The national composition of the sample was about the same as in all educational institutions. To measure the affective component of emotional States has been adapted previously developed a projective technique, based on the technology of semantic differential Charles Osgood. Levels of perception of emotional state were calculated for each Respondent individually, the proximity in the semantic space of the image of a real object from images of the ideal constructs. The paper presents the distribution function of the affective level was found in the linear model. In addition, to clarify the results of the interpretation, previously developed psychosemantic phenomenological nonlinear model was adapted to our conditions. Updated distribution functions confirm the trends obtained in the linear approximation. Obtained that on average the studied audience is characterized by a neutral emotional state, while 40% said their condition as negative and 33% positive. In the first approximation of the distribution function it is possible to allocate three groups of respondents. The subgroup with persistently positive emotional state (level of 0.4 to 0.6, on a scale from -1 to +1) – 14%, with a neutral or a slightly positive (0 to 0.3) is 44% negative – 37%. At the same time of the last population of the respondents 30% (of the total) are characterized by a small negative as (-0.3 to -0.1). And only 7% perceive their emotional state is quite negative (-0,4 level and below). And they are a subset of risk, which can develop socio-political tensions. Note that these estimates coincide with earlier obtained results based on the measurement of the perception of political orders. Designed questionnaire allowed to identify not only the affective component of perception of their own emotional States, but also cognitive. Comparative analysis showed that the estimation of the cognitive component is quite overpriced as a General emotional state, and the share of group risk (more than twice), which can develop the mood of protest. The study should be complemented by an analysis of affective component of perception of their emotional state.

Keywords: emotional state, affective component, cognitive component, semantic differential, theory of the perception of Coombs, the linear approximation, the distribution function, the nonlinear stochastic model, multi-agent model, risk group, political tensions

The study is based on the results of the survey conducted on the technology of semantic differential in may 2015, RSBIU. The sample consisted of 137 people, and was typical in basic social settings for students. The subjective perception of the political order was calculated under the previously proposed psychosemantic phenomenological model in agent - oriented AnyLogic. Shows the features of the distribution respondents of the levels of perception of local and Central political authorities. At the group statistical level, the difference between the emotional relation to both branches of government are not significant. The average for the study group, the level of perception of 0.04 and 0.1, respectively (with the normalization from -1 to +1). Meanwhile, 52% and 54% of the respondents belong to neutral authorities (level from -0.2 to +0.2), 16% and 14% negative (level < -0,2), and 32% were positive with a level >0,2. Risk group with a strongly negative (level -0,5) with respect to both branches of government is 6% and 8%, respectively. Among this subgroup, it is possible the formation of contentious processes. A comparative analysis with the results of similar studies carried out earlier in may 2014, the last period, the subjective perception was virtually stable. By 2015, there was a slight decrease in the proportion of negative (1% for area and 3% for Russia) configured respondents who have moved to the neutral category. But at the same risk group with a strongly negative attitude to may 2015 increased by 1%.

Keywords: subjective perception, semantic differential, psychosemantic phenomenological model, distribution function, of the agent-oriented approach, comparative analysis

The purpose of this paper is an analysis of emotional conditions the young people depending on gender characteristics, and to identify less emotionally stable group. There were interviewed 157 students ( 49% - men, 51% - women) of RSUCB, DGTU and, SRIM RPANEPA. It is revealed, the man give identical estimation of economic levels and social security. Women show a difference between these indicators on 1 point on average values. Emotional condition at the time of research is equally for men and women . Parameters such as the ability to enjoy small events, to feel emotions and be open to other people - are more typical for the female audience. Men are more inclined to feel guilty and noted the possibility of emotional mood swings. High assessments level of fullness life and the meaning of life activity are common to both gender groups.

Keywords: subjective perception, emotional condition, questioning, distribution function, comparative analysis, relative deprivation, social tensions, gender

This paper is the final in monitoring and modeling of socio-political attitudes of students of the University, made on the basis of a survey conducted in mid-2014. The index of overall conflict potential was constructed by using the previously obtained indicators of affective perception of political orders (local and Central) and parameter of general political activity. For this purpose, a psycho-semantic model developed on the basis of the concept of typicality, in terms of catastrophe theory. The index of overall conflict potential is modeled by a random variable. Its distribution function was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using agent - oriented simulation package AnyLogic. The analysis and simulation showed in average relatively low level of conflict 0,46 (straight-line scale from 0 to +1). While 54% of respondents characterized the conflict potential is below average (0.4 and below). The high value of this parameter (0,8-0,9) was observed in one third of respondents. This part of the study audience is the group of risk regarding possible development of the protests.

Keywords: the students, Rostov State Building University, cognitive component, emotional perception, conflicts, political order, matrix, psycho-semantic model, distribution function, Monte-Carlo, agent - oriented package

It is given the interpretation of the primary parameters of conflict obtained by survey (137 people). The studied audience was typical for undergraduate students on basic social characteristics. In the questionnaire the various parties to the cognitive perception of the political order were identified by direct survey. And the emotional relationship to local and Central government were obtained on the technology of semantic differential. The model is based on the results of the parallel hierarchical factorization cognitive components. On the first level 14 of the primary signs reduced to five factors. They characterize the socio-political expectations, declared and real political activity, evaluating the legitimacy of authorities and political situation. These indexes, in turn, on the second level are combined into two independent factors: General cognitive activity and perception of political orders. In the model the indices of the affective perception of these orders (calculated on the basis of the affective section of the questionnaire) were added to them. Two-dimensional histogram of the distribution component matrix for the respondents shows that the subgroup with both highly negative emotional perception and political activity is low (for example, a value of the first parameter -0.4 and below, and the second 0.4 and above is characterized by only 4% of respondents). These respondents represent a risk for the possibility of forming protests.

Keywords: questioning, cognitive component, semantic differential, conflicts, parallel hierarchical factorization, the affective component, matrix, distribution function, multivariate analysis