Social and pension provision are key processes in the activities of any state, and the issues of forecasting expenses for them are among the most important in the economy. The task of evaluating the effectiveness of the pension fund has been solved by various methods, including regression analysis methods. This task is particularly difficult due to the presence of a large number of factors determining the activity of the pension fund, such as: the number of recipients of old-age pensions, the number of policyholders, self-employed policyholders, recipients of benefits, insured persons and working pensioners. As the main approach to the study, the method of implementing a model competition was applied. Those variants that violated the meaningful meaning of the variables and did not fully reflect the behavior of the modeled process were excluded from the resulting set of alternative model options. The final option was selected using the multi-criteria selection method. It is revealed that the use of relative variables is important for qualitative modeling of the studied processes. The above model shows that an increase in the ratio of the number of employers and the self-employed to the number of insured persons leads to a decrease in the cost of financing social and pension provision.The model can be effectively used for short-term forecasting of the total annual volume of financing of the pension fund department in the context of changing social and macroeconomic factors.
Keywords: pension fund, regression model, model competition, adequacy criteria, forecasting