Analysis of the stability of the trend parameter in the time series of a technical object with the use of the Hurst exponent
Abstract
Analysis of the stability of the trend parameter in the time series of a technical object with the use of the Hurst exponent
Incoming article date: 22.12.2018Predictive assessment of the technical object is based on the determination of the possible values of the controlled parameters in the projected time period and is carried out during the operation of the object. Calculations are usually done in the background and it is important to estimate the minimum sample of parameter values that can be used for prediction. The article shows the possibility of using the Hurst indicator to determine the persistence of the time series of the object parameter and presents a scheme for estimating the minimum sample size, which can be used to reliably predict the parameter change using time series forecasting methods.
Keywords: time series, Hurst exponent, forecast, estimate, trend, stability, persistence, value, parameter, object, data array